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Friday, August 07, 2009

नीड़ का निर्माण फिर फिर - Need ka Nirman fir fir

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 2.5 India License.

नीड़ का निर्माण फिर फिर, नेह का आह्वान फिर फिर

यह उठी आंधी की नभ में छा गया सहसा अँधेरा
धुलिधुसर बादलों ने धरती को इस भाँती घेरा
रात सा दिन हो गया फिर रात आई और काली
लग रहा था अब न होगा इस निशा का फिर सवेरा
रात के उत्पात-भय से भीत जन जन भीत कण कण
किन्तु प्राची से उषा की मोहिनी मुस्कान फिर फिर
नीड़ का निर्माण फिर फिर .....

क्रुद्ध नभ के वज्रदंतो में उषा है मुस्कुराती
घोर-गर्जनमय गगन ने कंठ में खग-पंक्ति गाती
एक चिडिया चोंच में तिनका लिए जो जा रही हैं
वह सहज में ही पवन उनचास को नीचा दिखाती
नाश के भय से कभी दबता नहीं निर्माण का सुख
प्रलय की निस्तब्धता में सृष्टि का नवगान फिर फिर
नीड़ का निर्माण फिर फिर....

कवी - हरिवंशराय बच्चन

One of my favorite poems cherishing eternal optimism and a spirit of never-say-die... Awesome and extremely rhythmic composition.

Thursday, August 06, 2009

Economy of India under Mughal Empire

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The Deccan conquest of Auranzeb can be considered as one of the longest and largest conquest in the history of mankind. About one and half million men and almost equal number of beasts toiling away far from their homes for 27 years just for the political ambition of one emperor, seems to be too huge to be true. Yet, truth is stranger than fiction and for 27 years, Mughal army ravaged Deccan and emerged defeated in the end. Their prime aim, which was to subdue Marathas, proved to be futile. Marathas were already conquering central India, when Mughals were busy conquering Deccan. Within eight years of Aurangzeb's death, Marathas entered Delhi as part of allied forces and within 30 years of his death, they had conquered Delhi on their own and ruling almost everything from Punjab to Tamil-Nadu and Sindh to Bengal. However, Maratha consolidation did not last long enough for rejuvenation of India. The strength which was sapped during the tenuous deccan conquest of Aurangzeb was never regained till date. The long-lasting geopolitical effects of this pyrrhic victory of Mughals are experienced even today as impediments in way of India's rise.

The ratio of Combatant to non-combatant was 1:3 in army in the camp of Aurangjeb in 1689. One army was deployed under Zulfikar Khan. One in Gujarat. One under Aurangjeb himself. One in Karnataka to finish off the remnants of Adilshahi and other army in Andhra Pradesh to finish the remnants of kutubshahi. In all, at least 5 armies like this (may be not as strong as this) were deployed in Deccan. If we assume other armies to be half the size of army you just described, that makes about 1.3 million people in total were deployed.

How was the logistics of such huge army managed? Deccan is not productive in terms of food grains as compared to northern plains of Ganga and Punjab. There is a limit for plundering as plundering of food grains can happen at the most once in one season. And every year, the yield of plunder will go on decreasing because farmers won't or can't cultivate their land in subsequent years.

Aurangjeb transport all the food supplies from North India for most of the years. The traders involved in these transactions must have made enormous profits in this adventure of Deccan. Furthermore, the fodder for animals, their replacements, diseases. Mughals in particular were very protective about their central asian horses. I have read that Babur used to send his wounded horses to Afghanistan because he believed the air in central asia was superior to poisonous air of India which was unhealthy for horses. Enormous project when seen from management point of view.

And Aurangjeb could fund this venture for 27 years at a stretch?? Just imagine the size of Indian economy to sustain such a campaign for so long. If USA stays in Afghanistan or Iraq for 27 years at a stretch with their full might, I wonder how fucked up their economy will be? Perhaps worst than Somalia.

Dr. John Fansis Jameli Kareri ( Italian person) who in 1689, was with Aurangjeb after Sambhaji exicution and witnessed mughal chhavani at village Galgali. Hence can be considered as eye witness for the strength of mughal army/aurangjeb's chhavani during the exicution of Sambhaji. He says :

At chhavani Badshah army has 60,000 horsemens and 1,00,000 infantry with 50000 camels, 3000 elephants. Also has other peoples including servents, businessmens, artist totalling 5 lakhs of mans. There are total 250 markets in chhavani and chhavani itself covering area about 30 (Sq ?) miles. To transport chhavani material 100-125 elephants and 400 bullock carts were required.

Other than above, mughal army which was spreded over rest of the area, may not (or shall i say must not) have covered in above.) for e.g. Zulphikarkhan alongwith his 30-40000 infantry was busy with raigad and then jinji fort. ( 1690-92)

Indian economy in 17th and 18th century

The total GDP of world in 1700 was about $370 Billion. The GDP of Mughal Empire in 1690s was $ 91 Billion dollars. And this was decline of Indian Economy. Due to Aurangjeb's Deccan invasion, Economy of India climbed down to number two position to be tied with that of China. China eventually overtook India by 1829. Till 1680, India most probably was the biggest economy in the world, based on actual production as well as Purchasing power parity.

Ref - Paths to the future for science and technology in China, India and the United States - J. Thomas Ratchford; William A. Blanpieda; Technology in Society Volume 30, Issues 3-4, August-November 2008, Pages 211-233.

I wonder how big might Indian economy have been in 1500's. Stable Mughal rule in North; Stable Bahmani rule in centre and prosperous Vijaynagar empire in South. In 1700's, when Indian economy began its gradual decline, the market share of India was about 25%. Its a pity that there not many figures available about Vijaynagar. At least I don't know about it. If anybody has any information, please contribute. The economy of Portugal rose and fell with rise and fall of Vijaynagar Empire.

Thing to remember is this figure is after 20 years of fucked up Deccan occupation. In 1670, the economy might have been at zenith. It was the basis of Indian economy in 1650's that Aurangjeb might could sustain this war for 27 years. If after 20 years of mess, what was left was $90 billion, what might have been the figure when he actually decided to start?

Lets assume that GDP in 1670 was about $300-350 Billion (including the GDP's of Mughals, Adilshahi, Kutubshahi, Marathas, Ahoms and Southern Rayas). Assuming that given the extent of Mughal empire, they comprised about 70% of total Indian economy, that makes it about $200-250 Billion. Of course, almost 80% of total GDP of Mughals was used by the Elite. So, its not the case that common man was happy in Mughal rule.

The figures of revenue of Mughal empire are as follows in 1690 and 1700 AD, when Mughal empire was at its height of political expanse-

YEAR........: 31-35th year of corronation
AREA...... : BENGAL
SOURCE..: ZAVABIT-E-ALAMGIRI
FIGURE....: 524636240 DAM = Rs 13,115,906 = Rs 13.1 million

YEAR........: 41th year of corronation
AREA...... : BENGAL
SOURCE..: KHULASAT UL SIYAK
FIGURE....: 172841000 DAM = Rs 4,321.025 = Rs 4.3 million

Loss = Rs 8,794,991 = Rs 8.7 Million
% loss = 67%

YEAR........: 31-35th year of corronation
AREA...... : ORISSA
SOURCE..: ZAVABIT-E-ALAMGIRI
FIGURE....: not given

YEAR........: 41th year of corronation
AREA...... : ORISSA
SOURCE..: KHULASAT UL SIYAK
FIGURE....: 172841000 DAM = Rs. 4,321,025 = Rs 4.3 million

Assuming 67% loss for Orissa as well, the income of Orissa in 1690 comes up to be - 13.1 million rupees

YEAR........: 31-35th year of corronation
AREA...... : BIHAR
SOURCE..: DASTUR-UL-AMAL-E-ALAMGIRI
FIGURE....: 545300935 DAM
SOURCE..: ZAVABIT-E-ALAMGIRI
FIGURE...: 427181000 = Rs 10,679,525 = Rs 10.6 million

YEAR........: 41th year of corronation
AREA...... : BIHAR
SOURCE..: KHULASAT UL SIYAK
FIGURE....: 394344532 DAM = Rs 9,858,613 = Rs 9.8 million

Loss incurred - Rs 820,912
% Loss - 7%

YEAR........: 31-35th year of corronation
AREA...... : AWADH
SOURCE..: ZAVABIT-E-ALAMGIRI
FIGURE....: 321317119 DAM = Rs 8,032,928 = Rs 8 million

YEAR........: 41th year of corronation
AREA...... : AWADH
SOURCE..: KHULASAT UL SIYAK
FIGURE....: 479579619 DAM = Rs 11,989,490 = Rs 11.9 million

Total Profit - Rs 3,956,562 = Rs 3.9 million
% profit - 49%

YEAR........: 31-35th year of corronation
AREA...... : ALAHABAD
SOURCE..: ZAVABIT-E-ALAMGIRI
FIGURE....: 456543278 DAM = Rs 11,413.581 = Rs 11.4 million

YEAR........: 41th year of corronation
AREA...... : ALAHABAD
SOURCE..: KHULASAT UL SIYAK
FIGURE....: 422336622 DAM = Rs 10,558,415 = Rs 10.5 Million

Loss - Rs 855,166
% Loss - 7%

YEAR........: 31-35th year of corronation
AREA...... : DELHI
SOURCE..: ZAVABIT-E-ALAMGIRI
FIGURE....: 1222950137 DAM = Rs 30,573,753 = Rs 30.57 million

YEAR........: 41th year of corronation
AREA...... : DELHI
SOURCE..: KHULASAT UL SIYAK
FIGURE....: 1221950117 DAM = Rs 30,548,752 = Rs 30.54 Million

Loss - Rs 25,001
% Loss - 0.008%

YEAR........: 31-35th year of corronation
AREA...... : AGRA
SOURCE..: ZAVABIT-E-ALAMGIRI
FIGURE....: 1141700157 DAM = Rs 28,542,503 = Rs 28.5 Lakh

YEAR........: 41th year of corronation
AREA...... : AGRA
SOURCE..: KHULASAT UL SIYAK
FIGURE....: not given = Rs 28,542,503 = Rs 28.5 million

Total revenue in 1690 AD - Rs 115,474,102 = Rs 115 Million (of Given territories)
Total Revenue in 1700 AD = Rs 100,139,823 = Rs 100 Million (of Given Territories)
Decline = Rs 15,334,279 = Rs 15 Million
% Decline = 13% in 10 years in given provinces. These figueres are not for rest of India, where mughal army was unleashing hell.

Furthermore, revenue of given provinces in 1700 was Rs 100 million. If we assume another Rs 75-80 million as total revenue of rest of provinces of India which were war-torn, the total revenue of Mughal empire in 1700 might have been around Rs 180 million.

For sake of simplicity, lets assume Rs 200 million. According to paper cited earlier, GDP of Mughal empire in 1700 was $ 90 billion = Rs 200 million.

Rs. 1 = $500

From Wiki article - Annual revenue reported by the Emperor Aurangzeb's exchequer exceeded £100 million in 1700 (twice that of Europe then). Thus, India emerged as the world's largest economy, followed by Manchu China and Western Europe.

The total treasury of Aurangjeb, according to this source was 100 million Pounds.

1 pound sterling = Rs 2 (in 1700AD)

two decades before 1700; mughal economy of given provinces = 115 million rupees.
Rest of india, excluding these provinces which were quite stable and economical productive before Aurangjeb chose to invade Deccan = Rs 150 million more (at least)

Total = Rs 265 million. for simplicity, Rs 300 million.
( Source for info : Moghal kalin Mahasul Paddhati)

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Reason of all this data-mining to see the effect of Aurangzeb and his religious fanaticism and zealot character had on socio-politics, economics and geostrategical standing of India and world in years to come.

a. He squandered off india's wealth and military power over futile effort. Before his Deccan conquest, India was undoubtedly largest economy of world.. The setback of his Deccan conquest resulted in weakening of central authority of India in India and Central Asia and following things happened.

b. Marathas and later British took over India. Marathas lacked the vision of British, hence could not last long. British facilitated the outflow of money from India to Europe, thus facilitating their industrial revolution. India's GDP and trade decreased drastically in Aurangzeb's reign and steadily after his death.

c. Afghanistan grew weak and the influence of India over Central Asia declined. Russia and Britain started the competition for control over Central asia, which was previously under Indian influence. This is known as "the Great Game" and is still continuing today in Afghanistan. Aurangzeb's policies had this far reaching effect.

d. Military power and technological advances stopped as India slipped into period of instability.

e. The social cohesiveness declined owing to Aurangzeb's religious fanaticism.

f. Along with Sirhindi, Aurangzeb stalled the process of integration of Muslims in Indian society. Dara Shikoh was on the way of finding the golden way of Indianization of Islam. Aurangzeb irreversibly stalled that process.. This alienated Muslims from Hindus as their quest of separate identity was fuelled by Aurangzeb's fanaticism. Without Aurangzeb, there would never have been Paritition of India, demolition of countless temples, massacre of thousands in name of religion and hence persistent sense of mistrust between Indics and Muslims.



** Special Thanks to Mr. Kiran Kharde, who provided the data of Mughal revenues.