The riddle of Ambedkar and Reservation

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People wonder why sangha didn't invest in producing good social commentators who're good at their craft and relatively honest even if not fully. Requires money to be invested but not multi millions of dollars, and even that capital isn't out of reach for many years now. Even if one says ambedkar was already established here, the counter argument is going to be that you being the hindu side, should've tried to replace him with hindu icons from those communities (Like Sant Ravidas for example). 

There is difference between sant ravidas (and other Hindu dalit icons) and Ambedkar. 

Ambedkar is a modern man with modern solutions fit for current day Westphalian nation-state model. Older Hindu Dalits saints (even MH has many of those jīvanamukta beings with dalit bodies) are ok for Bhakti and adhyātma. But they don’t have a policy suggestions which can be implemented in this Westphalian nation-state system of governance that is enforced on us by the British post 1857. If we had reverted to varNāshrama dharma in 1947, it would have been possible. But this was preempted by Ambedkar in 1920s. 

Reservations are pact or a contract between four-varNa Hindus and the untouchables that the latter’s interests will be accommodated within Hindu society without them asking for separate country. They actually asked for it in 1920s (started with separate electorate - would have moved to separate country - just like Muslim league). 

Now one may argue that SCs in cow belt were untouched by this and I will agree. But SCs in MH, Punjab, WB were not untouched (and that is from where most of the freedom struggle was fought - especially Bengal and Maharashtra). The thoughts of Jogendranath Mandal were even worse.

There was enormous state patronage from the British for this separate dalit electorate demand just like Muslims. If fact I respect Gandhi for this one act alone. He literally blackmailed Ambedkar into submission by his genuine fast unto almost death (which would led to huge anti-SC riots all over country (again - mostly in MH, WB and Punjab) and society would have splintered irrevocably. Poona-Pact is where this second partition of India was nipped in the bud. Tilak tried to nip first partition in bud in Lucknow-Pact earlier but it failed (due to nature of Islam - but that is separate topic).

In form of reservations, we all are paying for that Poona pact between Gandhi and Ambedkar. Now there is no exit clause from here. One can get out of this contract only by keeping dharma alive in minds, lives and conscious of as large a chunk of Dalits as possible and then using that dharma to gradually wean off that chunk of Dalits away from these subversive tendencies. These Dalits will leave this on their own (or will be integrated enough that when we remove it, there won’t be much fuss).

People diss Phule. But remember where and when Phule was cultivated and why (In Pune, born 9 years after 1818 and active around 1840-1880 : his peak was around 1857). There is no one single pro Hindu mass leader born in this time (Tilak born in 1856 and got active late in 1887-90). So from 1818 to 1890s British had virtually free run from 1818 to 1890 to subvert entire societies at will. Phule happened at that time. And they had special “love” for Marathas (because they knew they had actually won india from them and not from Mughals). They were really good at taking the best from among Hindus and twisting them in their minds to make them act against Hindu interests (look at Sikhs post 1850). I am glad Maharashtrian society resisted that poison that was so successfully injected in Punjab and Tamil Nadu

The “Hindu” and “modern” answer for this riddle (or Dalits and reservations etc) was Savarkar. But we all know what was his status in sociopolitical discourse until recently (Godse by his foolish act made sure Savarkar was relegated to corner). By 2014, Phule-Ambedkar-Shahu were already made ubiquitous all across India - especially after 1980s. And Savarkar will always remain an “outsider” to Dalits until they integrate fully into Hindu consciousness like other jātis (which they are - many never left). 

What is the way forward? 

Hindus (especially savarNa) need to understand that Ambedkar has become PBUH for Dalits all over India. And this was not done by Sangh (or Maharashtrian Brahmins 😁). The ékātmatā stotra etc names many names. There are many dalit Bastis where we emphasise on Lahuji Vastad, Ravidas, Vālmiki, Vyasa, Chokha-Mela etc as being “also dalit icons” and gradually it is resonating (except within the largest SC beneficiary caste of the region who is most vested in maintaining the mythology strictly around Ambedkar - they are the ones within SCs who have benefited from the reservation the most at the expense of other SCs who are even today staunchly Hindu.) But a very well calibrated, researched and evidence backed narrative (pushed by far stronger forces than us for far too long) is such that atrocities were done and Ambedkar rescued them. So even those within SCs who are staunchly Hindu genuinely believe that Ambedkar gave them opportunities (which I cannot say I disagree given the views of people like Karpātri Maharaj who was active until very 80s which “may” have been widespread within savarNa Hindus of north). 

Add to this demographic reality. Thankfully the caste census will solve this question once and for all. We will soon have real data and everyone (GC-Hindus, Muslims, OBCs and SC-STs) will understand their numerical strength so that policies can be recalibrated as per this new numerical reality.

The only way out of reservation and associated narrative is for India to grow rich and expand. Make many good medical and engineering colleges so that there are enough seats so that decent GC kids to get admission and not just super brilliant ones. Having been associated with IIT, I know how the kids from reservation category struggle in completing the BTech courses which they got in at lesser JEE cutoff. Many dropout and do not/cannot complete the course which is very demanding. Same for medical. So I am not worrying about bad engineers and doctors passing out (those who make it to degree are decently equipped). We just need lot more seats where GC kids don’t have to sweat so much in spite of reservations. Economy is growing and in life and society which is relatively free. the talent shines and coal does not. This is my experience so far. There will never be reservations in Private sector in India. That is where money and growth is.

Long term - as said above. Gradually convince SCs that they don’t need reservations and asking them to give it up in addition to empowering private sector. This is multigenerational project which Sangh is doing at its pace and as per its intellect.

Fructification dates of 90-year cycle of History of 2030s

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The dates for current fructification of the 90-year cycle of history. There are two massive events happening in this time. Guru+Rahu in death spiral AND Shani+ketu in death spiral.

24/08/2030 - shani 44 taurus, ketu 49 taurus - imagine this as two merging black-holes in their final (5 degree approach) spiral of collision. This is the date when final phases of the spiral starts.

21/09/2030 - shani (retro) 44 taurus, ketu 46 taurus

from this date onwards, both start moving back. All this happening in second paada of rohiNi nakshatra. Both are basically moving back in rohiNi hand in hand from this date.

20/10/2030 - shani (R) 43.59, ketu (R)  43.58 - the first collision. Shani accelerates in retrogression hereafter to go farther (not much) to escape the the pull of another. This happens in Navamsha of Venus. 

05/11/2030 - Guru 218, Rahu 223 - The second massive set of black-holes begin their death spiral in Scorpio (anuradha nakshatra of Shani co-ruled by ketu)

26/11/2030 - Guru 223 degrees, Rahu 223 Degrees (Anuradha 3rd paada - venus navamsha) - The actual collision of this set in tula/dhanu navamsha of anuradha-3/4)

13/12/2030 - Guru 227, Rahu 223 - 5 degree separation between the two. Thankfully, these two do not meet again later. But this is a very small mercy. Damage already done and stage set for next event.

02/02/2031 - Shani 38 taurus, Ketu 40 taurus

Shani's retrogression ends on this date. They again approach each other for one more headlong collision

23/02/2031 - shani 38.12, ketu 38.12 taurus (rohiNi first charaNa) - the date of second headlong collision of these two planets (in navamsha of mars).

30/04/2031 - Shani 40 taurus, ketu 35 taurus (finally five degree separation between the two in opposite direction).

From August 2030 to April 2031, in these 9 months something momentous is going to happen which will shatter the world. This is the time when the 90-year cycle will explode on the world (and India and Hindus). The second collision happening in Feb in Aries navamsha (which is the absolute worst position for both Shani and Ketu to be, even separately. here they are together) is especially bad. 

Think of these 9 months as the gestation period of human karma which will start bearing fruit simultaneously and will continue troubling the living world for next decade or so. Those will be the effects of this this massive event. Had guru been alone, aspecting Shani+ketu, it would have been a saving grace. Guru too is poisoned by Rahu in the nakshatra of shani (who is poisoned too) at exact same time as Shani is by Ketu. 

Last time when this happened, Hitler launched Op. Barbarossa.... I don't think even then there was guru+rahu in anuradha in addition to shani+ketu in rohiNi. This shows something worse than Op. Barbarossa.

This happened 180 years ago (1850s). Crimean War, Anglo-Indian war of independence, seeds of American Civil war, Anglo-China Opium war. As is the case with participation of guru+rahu, religion/ideology played the triggering effect in 1850s (at least in India). 

And this again happened 360 years ago in the decade of 1680s (Remember Chhava and Hindavi Swarajya's 27 year long bloody religious war with Aurangzeb). 

Whatever happens in these 9 months (August 2030 to April 2031), religion/ideology will play the triggering role here. 

Hacking the Human Development Index – The India Way

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By Shri. Rama Yeleshwarapu

A few days ago, I read an insightful article by an old Bharat Rakshak friend, Suraj, in Swarajya magazine about India’s journey towards Vikasit Bharat by 2047 through the lens of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). I highly recommend that readers take a look at it.

Hacking the Human Development Index: Why UNDP's Latest HDI Scores For India Are Misleading

Understanding Vikasit Bharat and SDGs

Let’s start with the basics. What is our vision, as articulated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi? We aim to become a Vikasit Bharat by 2047. But what does that mean? Essentially, it implies that the quality of life in India, for all 140+ crore citizens, will reach an average SDG score of 80 or more. The SDG score is a key indicator of long-term sustainability in quality of life, assuming there are no major disruptions like wars or catastrophic natural events.

India could have defined its own quality-of-life indicators without external influence. However, adopting an internationally recognized standard has strategic advantages. It allows India to benchmark itself against global peers and enhances its credibility in international financial markets. A high SDG score can improve India’s rankings in various financial indices, potentially lowering the cost of capital and international borrowings. Even a modest 1-2% reduction in borrowing costs could save India Rs. 2-3 lakh crore annually - equivalent to our current food security expenditure.

Of course, agreeing to an international standard brings challenges. Some indicators may not align with Indian realities, while others may conflict with India’s unique advantages. However, since our policymakers have accepted SDG standards, it makes more sense to focus on achieving high scores efficiently while preserving India’s civilizational identity.

Can India Achieve High SDG Scores?

There are 17 SDG goals measured through 105 indicators, covering various aspects of human well-being. These indicators are tracked using a complex yet widely accepted methodology, which interested readers can explore online.

To assess India’s progress, we refer to the India SDG Report 2023-24. I encourage readers to go through this report, as the goal here is not to re-state its details but to engage in a broader discussion.

A careful review of SDG goals shows that most have little to do with technological superiority or even GDP. While economic development is essential for tackling poverty, hunger, and education, GDP alone does not fully capture individual well-being. In fact, eight out of the 17 SDG goals do not depend on technological advancement. Most nations, including India, can achieve high SDG scores using existing technologies.

As of 2024, India’s SDG score stands at 71, marking a 14-point increase from 2018 (Page 67 of the report). India has already surpassed the 80-point benchmark in three out of 17 SDG goals and scored over 70 in five more. Given the Modi government’s mission-driven approach (Pages 6-9 of the report), achieving an overall score of 80 by 2029—or at the latest, by 2030—is realistic.

The Reality Behind High SDG Scores

It is important to remember that achieving a perfect score of 100 on an SDG goal does not mean all citizens enjoy equal benefits. There will always be individuals who are dissatisfied or unable to afford certain lifestyle improvements. In a country of 140 crore people, even a tiny fraction—say, one lakh (<0.0001%)—will inevitably be unhappy with some aspect of life. In today’s digital era, this small group can amplify their grievances across social media platforms like WhatsApp, Telegram, Twitter/X, Instagram, and YouTube.

To put things in perspective, China had an overall SDG score of 70.85 in 2022. India has reached a similar score in 2024, just two years behind. Even China aims to cross the 80-point mark by 2030, so India remains on track.

However, an important distinction must be made: Just because India and China both achieve an SDG score above 80 does not mean they are identical in all indicators. Differences in individual SDG scores and the methods used to achieve them will persist. Consider Finland, which has the world’s highest SDG score of 86.35, yet performs poorly in three key areas: (2) Zero Hunger, (12) Responsible Consumption and Production, and (13) Climate Action. This should remind Indians not to indulge in unnecessary self-criticism.

The India Way

The essence of SDGs lies in sustainability. A nation may achieve a perfect score temporarily, but if that progress is unsustainable, it will ultimately fail. A useful metric to assess sustainability is ecological footprint, which measures the human demand on natural resources. If the entire world lived like the United States, we would require four Earths to sustain that lifestyle. Finland’s lifestyle would require 1.4 Earths, while China’s would need three Earths.

In contrast, India’s current SDG score of 71 requires only 0.7 Earths. The Bharatiya approach must focus on achieving an SDG score above 80 while maintaining this low ecological footprint. This is a critical distinction that readers should keep in mind.

Another key aspect of India’s strategy is ensuring that Vikasit Bharat is also Virasat Bharat. India’s civilizational identity remains rooted in its Hindu heritage. If an Islamic USA can exist in Dubai and a Christian China in France, then India can certainly be a Hindu China. There can be no compromise on this civilizational foundation.

The third dimension of India’s approach is its global impact. Every nation’s progress affects others, either positively or negatively. The Spillover Index measures these cross-border influences in trade, finance, and security. With a score of 95.74, India ranks 27th globally - outperforming all G20 countries. This means India’s rise benefits the world, a claim few other G20 nations can make.

A Different Path to Development

Finally, there is the GDP argument. Many believe that becoming a developed nation requires a per capita GDP of over $40,000 (as seen in first-world countries) or at least China’s $15,000. However, India may prove otherwise. It is possible for India to achieve Vikasit Bharat status with a per capita GDP of just $5,000 by leveraging sustainable growth models. If successful, this would be a major contribution to the Global South, breaking Western financial hegemony once and for all.

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India’s SDG journey is not just about improving scores but about redefining development itself. By prioritizing sustainability, cultural identity, and global responsibility, Bharat can carve out a unique and impactful path towards Vikasit Bharat 2047.

The Prodigal Sons of the State Dept - Part 3 - Entry of ISIS

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From 2012 to April 2014, the phenomenon of the ISIS/ISIL, called “Daesh” (Bad People/terrorists) by people in Islamic states to avoid using the word “Islamic” to describe the organization that calls itself “Islamic State”,  burst upon the scene.

The earlier version appeared to have morphed from diverse warlord groups operating in Iraq. The effort to set up democratic US-model elections in Iraq had predictably led to the rise of a government dominated by the majority Shia. There were power-sharing deals to keep the heavily-armed Sunnis (Saddam Hussein was a Sunni) pacified. However the jostling between warlords had spiraled into chaos. American interest in keeping up ground forces di- minished as belated realization that the 2003 ‘WMD dossiers’ were blatant scams, started percolating even through parts of the US public discourse and mainstream media. For reference, even in 2005, State Department retirees and others were citing the consternation of people in the US intelligence community: They had recognized the ‘satellite photos’ that were waved around in the UN Security Council by US Secretary of State General Colin Powell as ‘proof’ of Iraqi WMD. They knew that those were from 1990, and long-since destroyed or otherwise emptied. Rising domestic pressure to bring the troops home, was accompanied by rising pressure on Iraqi politicians to demand exit of the Americans.

A swift rash of attacks by the initial version of ISIS was eventually put down, and the Americans pulled out - significantly including cut-backs in aerial intervention. By late 2013/early 2014, the new ISIS had exploded on the scene, sweeping across the landscape of Iraq. It became evident that the earlier disappearance from Iraq was because the ISIS had been pulled out and redeployed inside the massive Sunni belt of Syria, particularly along the Euphrates river corridor, and the borders with Turkey.

With the Syrian government desperately fighting off the urban/suburban insurrection, the so-called ISIS forces occupied essentially all of the areas marked in white in Figure above as well as most of the Sunni-majority areas. Reuter published so-called Secret Files revealing the structure of the ISIS (Ref: https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/islamic-state-files-show-structure-of-islamist-terror-group-a-1029274.html). 

We will cite some facts and leave the rest to be filtered by the reader. The city of Raqqa fell to ’rebels’ in March 2013 and on October 17, the Islamic State called all the leaders and announced a full takeover: anyone with other ideas was executed, the rest swore allegiance to the Islamic State.

The second phase of the invasion started with Turkey openly transporting trainloads of heavy weapons to its border areas and feeding the ISIS to occupy the Euphrates valley (https://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/16/world/europe/turkey-is-a-steady-source-of-isis-recruits.html). 

Meanwhile Israeli forces attacked Syrian soldiers in the Golan Heights even as they were trying to defend against ISIS assaults; the ISIS wounded were taken into Israeli hospitals for treatment (https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-allows-first-peek-into-secret-field-hospital-on-syrian-border/ and https://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13921113001187 and https://foreignpolicy.com/2014/06/11/exclusive-israel-is-tending-to-wounded-syrian-rebels/) . 

Syrian air force bases were attacked by Israeli air power, and then overrun by the ISIS. In most cases, all Syrian soldiers who surrendered - and did not manage to be absorbed into ISIS ranks by virtue of ethnicity, were murdered and dumped in mass graves or rivers. In quick succession, villages small towns and larger cities fell to the invaders.

In December 2013, other Syrian rebel groups, even Al Nusra whom the US belatedly started calling an ‘Al Qaeda- related’ Islamist extremist group, banded together to attack ISIS and pushed them out of most of the occupied Syrian areas, even Raqqa. This may have been mostly for show, as the ISIS was needed elsewhere: by June 2014 the ISIS was swarming in Iraq.

The Kurds in the border areas declared independence, and were supported by American/NATO airpower and weapons to some extent. They managed to repel ISIS attacks on the city of Kobani. There were heart-rending reports of young Kurdish women soldiers fighting until they had exhausted their ammunition, and then, facing capture and torture, killed themselves with explosives, killing several of the ISIS swarming over them. The Kurdish SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) were reported to be fighting in collaboration with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) against the ISIS in September 2014 (https://www.reuters.com/article/world/syrian-army-turkish-forces-clash-near-border-state-media-idUSKBN1X91UX/_).

The Syrian government claimed since the very beginning, that they were facing a foreign terrorist invasion. This has been more than vindicated by the massive scale of subsequent warfare, with the Syrian armed forces severely outgunned and outmanned, and reduced to defending a few pockets around Damascus and in the province of Latakia. By mid 2015, these areas were also under threat with Damascus suburbs getting heavy shelling. The cities of Homs, Aleppo, Raqqa, Kobani and Palmyra had been lost from Syrian control. Deir ez Zor (D-e-Z), near the Iraq border, has a gruesome history: It was where the Turkish Ottoman forces drove thousands of exhausted Armenian families, and left them to starve to death under the desert sun during the Armenian Genocide. D-e-Z became a besieged garrison with an airport that was often under fire. Syrian soldiers who surrendered elsewhere, had been mercilessly beheaded by the ISIS and the other Rebels, and perhaps this knowledge of certain torture and death sustained the D-e-Z defenders through a historic stand until they were relieved by a combined Syrian-Iranian force in late 2016. The commander of the D-e-Z garrison, General Zahreddin died days later when his vehicle hit a mine outside D-e-Z. At the very last stage of the D-e-Z siege, US warplanes killed over 100 Syrian soldiers in their defensive positions outside D-e-Z, 3 minutes before the ISIS launched a massive assault, very nearly breaking through the Syrian defense line. The US military later claimed that this was an error - which the Russians and Syrians found incredible.

The US Taxpayer’s Benevolence

US involvement started with covert aid to the Syrian Rebels, and clearly supported the armed groups trying to invade Damascus and overthrow the Assad government. The US arming, training and funding the ‘dissent’ in Syria, was quite open and proudly announced. There was strong support for the principle of supporting the Forces of Freedom in Syria against the ‘regime’ of the ‘brutal dictator Assad’, with measures including decapitation strikes, and War Crimes Trials loudly demanded against President Assad. The small fact that Syria was (and is) a sovereign member of the United Nations, that had done nothing hostile against the United States nor posed any challenge to the security of the USA, was not seen mentioned.

It is now apparent that covert aid started very early, but formal approval for military aid to the ‘Rebels’ did not occur until September 2014, by which time the ISIS was swarming all over Iraq and Syria. By 2015, the US had authorized some of the rebel groups to call in US/ NATO airstrikes, purportedly to allow them to fight off ISIS assaults, but equally enabling strikes on the forces of the Syrian government (https://nypost.com/2014/09/17/house-grudgingly-approves-arms-for-syrian-rebels/ and https://www.reuters.com/article/world/u-s-congress-approves-arming-syrian-rebels-funding-government-idUSKBN0HD1UJ/ and https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2014/09/17/349075789/after-a-long-wait-syrian-rebels-hope-the-weapons-will-now-flow and https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-to-give-some-syria-rebels-ability-to-call-airstrikes-1424208053).

Doubts about the nature of the Allies receiving US aid appeared in the US media following this Congressional approval. By September 2014 the media were putting the term ’moderate’ in quotes while referring to the rebels whom the US taxpayer was supporting. Thus there were reports that the US-funded ‘Opposition’ against the Syrian Government, had sworn that they backed the ‘rebels’ against the ’Al Qaeda’. In this context, we must point out that the term  ’Al Qaeda’ means ”root directory’ of a hard disk in a computer found in the rubble in Afghanistan by US forces in 2001. The term appears to find usage mainly in justifying funding from Western lawmakers, as in ’we need funding to fight Al Qaeda in (fill in the geographic feature such as ‘Arabian Peninsula’ or ‘Iraq’). 

The only reported usage of such a term in an in- ternal Arabic document was an early position paper by Dr. Aiman Al Zuwahiri, lieutenant to Sheikh Osama Bin Laden, de- scribing the members of the initial Afghan resistance against the Soviets as the core of the movement for Islamic purity (https://www.reuters.com/article/world/syria-s-moderate-rebels-say-they-need-weapons-not-training-idUSKBN0HA0QX/ and https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-does-not-rule-out-meeting-syrias-assad-restore-ties-2024-06-28/).

In September 2014, the US forces bombed ISIS sites in Syria. By May 2015, apparent consternation had dawned in Washington DC about what was obvious to anyone else: that Saudi Arabia and Turkey were sponsoring the ISIS- the same entities that the US forces were supposed to be bombing in Syria. By November 2015, the optimism had faded, lamenting that more airstrikes were not likely to help defeat the ISIS. But by then the Russians were in action (https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/u-s-bombs-isis-sites-syria-targets-khorasan-group-n209421 and https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-crisis-turkey-and-saudi-arabia-shock-western-countries-by-supporting-antiassad-jihadists-10242747.html)

To be Continued.. 

Who Fathered ISIS? The Prodigal Sons of the State Dept - Part 2 - History

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Simplified Demographics

It can be speculated on how to resolve the above cognitive dissonance, starting with above Figure. This is a map of Syria from 1976, overlaid with simplified demo-graphics. At the time, the total population of Syria was around 6.3 million (https://en.wikipedia.org/ wiki/Demographics_of_Syria). 

The vast region in white bordering Iraq and Jordan was and still is sparsely populated. The southwest including Dam- ascus and the Ghouta province and the northwest (Latakia, Idlib and Hama) are the most fertile, with Latakia having a Mediterranean coastline. The Golan Heights at the southwest are partially occupied by Israel since the war of 1967. The majority (60 %) of Syria’s population follow the Sunni sect of Islam. The power centers of the ruling Baath Party draw support from the Alawites who are part of the Shia branch of Islam. They constituted 13% while the Sunni Kurds were 10%, Greek-Orthodox Christians were 8%, Armenian-Christians, Arab-Druze, Arab-Ismaeli each 2%, and Turkmen, Circassian and Assyrian making up the remainder. Some 60% of the total population lived in the Aleppo province and along the Euphrates River Valley, stretching from Idlib and Aleppo in the northwest to Deir-ez-Zor at the eastern Iraq border. The navigable river is a corridor of commerce and invasions since ancient times.

Sunni-Shia Faultline

The history of the Sunni-Shia divide is summarized in (https://www.cfr.org/article/sunni-shia-divide). Today 85% of Muslims (all ardent followers of Islam’s Prophet Mohammed) are Sunni, and 15% are from the remaining sects including the Shia (Alawite, Ahmadiya, to name two). Shias have concentrations in the Middle East and North Africa in certain pockets.

Syria’s neighbors are Iraq, Jordan, Turkey and Israel. When President Erdogan came to power in Turkey, he rode on a platform to introduce fundamentalist Islamic reforms. He reversed decades of Field Marshal Kemal Attaturk’s western- seeking secularism that even imposed tough (for Believers) dress codes. Relations with Israel initially became less civil.

Both Turkey and Saudi Arabia are predominantly Sunni. Iraq has a majority Shia population which was ruled by Sad- dam Hussein’s minority Sunni military officers until his over- throw. Today a Shia-majority government rules Iraq. In Syria, despite having the 60% Sunni population, the ruling Baath Party is led by an Alawite Shia, and, most unusually for any Muslim-majority nation and particularly an Arab nation, has always had Christians and other Unbelievers (in Islam) in government positions. Thus the Shia rulers of Syria found little favor from either Turkey or Saudi Arabia. An uneasy peace reigned in the region, enforced by regimes that kept dissent out of public view, with occasional uprisings put down with massive force. The practices and freedoms were notably similar whether in ’Authoritarian’ Syria or ’US-Allied and Civilized’ Turkey and the Gulf Emirates such as Bahrain and Qatar – and a lot worse in US-Frontline Ally Saudi Arabia. This stability changed as the Arab Spring provided the openings for regime change.

The Anti-Shia Alliance

As recently as the early 2000s, Israelis would tell anyone that they regarded Saudi Arabia as the primary source of existential threats to the Jewish nation. It appears that during the 2010s, Israel’s relations with Saudi Arabia and Turkey have improved dramatically. Simultaneously, they have organized themselves against the Shia populations led by Iran. Today Israel views the Shia militant groups Hezbollah (in Iran and Syria) and Hamas (in Lebanon) as their greatest threats, backed by the narrative that Iran is attempting to acquire nuclear weapons which Israel already has in plenty. Saudi Arabia also shares these fears (informed sources claim that they already have nuclear weapons which they funded Pakistan to acquire from China), while Turkey sees Iran as perhaps an obstacle to the rebirth of the Ottoman Caliphate.

Since the demise of Saddam Hussein and the rise of the Shia in Iraq through democratic elections and other power blocs, Syria’s, Iran’s and Iraq’s Shia populations have found much in common. One is that they are on the target list of Turkey and Saudi Arabia, and more recently the ISIS and by extension the Allies of those nations, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, NATO and the USA. With Israel and its supporters in the USA urging all to follow their example and launch military attacks on the Shia.

AK47 automatic assault rifles, RDX and C4 explosives for car bombs, rocket-propelled grenade launchers and anti-tank guided missiles are freely available throughout the region, happily supplied by eager purveyors. This reality is ignored by those who argue loudly for installing peaceful democratic rule by majority approval with respect for the rights of all – while supporting their own pet terrorist gangs in the interests of ‘saving’ natural resources for their own wealth.

By 2011, Syria had 21.1 million native Syrians, plus 1.3 million refugees from the wars in Iraq, 0.5 million Palestinian refugees and some 5200 Somalian refugees. By 2015, over 10 million Syrians were in regions occupied by the ISIS, and two million lived in Rojava, the region ruled by Kurdish forces. Another 6 million had left the country, and an undetermined, very large number, estimated by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) at 7 million were internally dis- placed refugees.

The Color Revolution and Regime Change Wars In the Middle East

“Regime Change Wars” are not new in the history of the United States. The Mossadegh “regime” in Iran, which was elected by popular vote, was overthrown by street riots, strongly suspected to be fomented by foreign interests including the USA (https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02684527.2011.580603?scroll=top&needAccess=true and https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/static/all-the-shahs-men.pdf). 

The Salvador Allende government in Chile was considered to be “leftist” and was overthrown, likewise, by interests supported by US funding (https://www.jstor.org/stable/165728 and https://ttu-ir.tdl.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/aa893fdf-f06b-4166-8eb0-86861b2d57c1/content). An attempt was made back in 1961 to overthrow the government led by Fidel Castro in Cuba (the ill-fated Bay of Pigs event) (https://www.rienner.com/title/Politics_of_Illusion_The_Bay_of_Pigs_Invasion_Reexamined and https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-latin-american-studies/article/abs/ships-in-the-night-the-cia-the-white-house-and-the-bay-of-pigs/97907DF7A0522B57B89DA275118827CA). 

Cut to the 21st century. 

The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, were the culmination of quite a widespread number of terrorist projects over the preceding decade (https://www.bharat-rakshak.com/MONITOR/ISSUE5-2/narayanan.html). The reaction in the USA was perhaps a realization that a “Clash of Civilizations” as projected by Prof. Huntington , had become inevitable (https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-349-62397-6_6).

It appears that entities in and out of the US and Allied governments developed plans to exploit long-held regional feuds, jealousies and suspicion to fragment the Arab and larger Islamic world, as a response against the rise of militant Islam. As the “smart” mobile phone and Internet access penetrated the Arab world, the technical capabilities to mount mass uprisings became available. Meanwhile the idea of Color Revolutions had been tested in the nations of the Former Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact nations - the term referring to the use of a particular distinctive color such as orange, painted over large areas or worn by many, to convey the notion of common cause, uniform outrage and vast numbers. The mushrooming growth of media communications technology in the 21st century had no small effect on the growth of Color Revolutions mass, highly coordinated, highly agile uprisings, apparently by unarmed youth. 

In turn, agitations grew and turned violent in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/283593632_The_color_revolution_virus_and_authoritarian_antidotes_Political_protest_and_regime_counterattacks_in_post-communist_spaces ; https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262017770/the-color-revolution/  ; https://muse.jhu.edu/article/270334 and https://www.globalresearch.ca/google-s-revolution-factory-alliance-of-youth-movements-color-revolution-2-0/23283 )

Today, Tunisia appears to have survived without much damage, Egypt went through several upheavals but has re- turned to military rule after both President (General) Mubarak and his successor, Mr. Morsi, died in prison. Muammar Gaddafi of Libya was captured and beaten to death after a NATO-led ’intervention’ - Libya today is still fragmented, and a prime market for weapons and mercenaries, even out- doing Syria. Note: At latest look in January 2020, Russian- supported and Turkish-supported, western-encouraged militias appear to be consolidating on opposite sides with the European and UN leadership expressing concern about the fate of Libyan oil.

In the United Arab Emirates, feeble attempts to start agitations were promptly and decisively suppressed. Yemen is in the final stages (we hope) of a ’civil’ war that has brought famine and genocide, but also brought dozens of billions of dollars in weapon sales to Saudi Arabia, perhaps to make up for losses in the field.

Color Revolutions To ISIS Black Flags

Herring and Christian advanced some points for consideration. The first was that the so-called ‘Arab Spring’ was never a desire for self-rule or pluralistic democracy as understood, but a desire for Islamic rule. “Each country that fell to that faux-organic sweep of protest shared a trait in common: aside from being brutal dictatorships, they were also secular governments.” Put differently, the ’popular outcome’ as visible from the noise of the mobs, would have been an absolutely repressive Islamic dictatorship. (https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2014/08/the_return_of_the_arab_spring.html)

They went on to reason that the rise of the ISIS would not have gone unnoticed by government intelligence agencies and that the ISIS was far from being a ragtag bunch of malcontents: it is an immensely well-organized, well-planned, well trained and well-funded, brutal multinational army. That cannot be created without very powerful interests driving it, and this could not have been missed by intelligence agencies.

They then reason that President Obama’s administration could have at least allowed the growth of ISIS, in the confidence that this force could be swept into Sunni majority Syria, to achieve the regime overthrow for which the President could not obtain congressional or UN approval. Whether there was any thought given to how the resulting theocratic mob rule could be controlled enough to gain access to the wealth of Syria or whether there was an even grander plan to dominate the Middle East, are unknown.

In Syria, the Color Revolution spiraled out of the government’s ability to control, with stunning rapidity by March 2011. Given that the government’s ethnic support base ac- counts for much less than 20% of the population, they did not have the luxury of trying to out-number the street demonstrators with counter demonstrations. The demonstrators attacked government buildings and officials from the early days, and quickly got senior army officers to mutiny and defect. Government efforts to contain the protests by arresting leaders, only served as fodder for the international media campaign pointing to ‘brutal repression of dissent’, in a spiral of increasing violence.

Unlike Tunisia where the self-immolation of a starving street vendor protesting intolerable corruption was the trigger that ‘went viral’, it is clear that the Syrian rebellion was from the start based on deep conspiracy that brought senior military officers into the open. The defectors formed the core of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in the Ghouta suburbs of Damascus- from the start a heavily armed and trained group focused on overthrowing the government by force. As seen below, the FSA quickly - or perhaps with uncanny foresight and planning, brought foreign military and financial aid. Unsurprisingly, it brought rather desperate and urgent response from loyalist forces. In the cities of Homs and Aleppo government forces were besieged, and lost control. The government termed the so-called protests a Terrorist Invasion - again a very prescient observation in view of what happened shortly thereafter.

The campaign against Syria was organized with admirable marketing skill. By June 2011, the UN’s top humanitarian relief official, Undersecretary Valerie Amos, had expressed grave concern, at the reported death of 1200 people, and the exit of some 10,000 refugees from Syria into Turkey. In August 2017, the UN Secretary General’s Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict, Ms. Radhika Coomaraswamy, declared [30] that “the use of excessive and lethal force” by the security forces is “taking a heavy toll on civilian lives, including children...We have had credible allegations of children being killed or wounded in security operations against civilians in Syria”. 

This followed a Syrian military operation against so-called ’protestors’ in the port city of Latakia - no doubt there were hostilities involving heavy weapons in populated urban areas, a.k.a. street fighting. The UN ’temporarily’ withdrew non-essential personnel from Syria. It is worth noting here that Latakia is home to a long- held Russian Naval Base, one of the few points from where Russia could project power in the Mediterranean. She continued: 

“There are also allegations that children have been tortured by the security forces. State parties have a duty to protect children in any police or military operations and I call on the Syrian authorities to fulfill their obligations.” (https://news.un.org/en/%20en/story/2011/06/378262-syria-un-%20relief-official-voices-concern-over-%20violence-against-civilians)

Another UN report, from the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, declared that the Syrian government crackdown might amount to ’crimes against humanity’ and might call for an investigation by the International Criminal Court. Of course this appears to be laudable concern for innocents, but was remarkably missing from the UN’s repertoire shortly thereafter as the ISIS massacred, raped and enslaved Yazidis and other minorities in Iraq, and set out to do the same to the minorities in Syria. Perhaps the UN suffered ’atrocity fatigue’, the kindest explanation that we can imagine. (https://news.un.org/en/story/2011/08/384432)

Jet fighters and helicopter gunships were shot down, artillery was used in urban areas and outside, and there were reports of captives being tortured and executed on both sides. These reports were of course played up in the western media as evidence of the so-called ’brutality’ of the Assad regime and Assad himself. Calm reference to history might show that Assad’s government reacted much less strongly than others, for instance the United States Government, have done when faced with a secessionist “dissent”, which soon turned into foreign-funded, foreign-armed Civil War. The UN, as usual and in the best habits that led to the failure of the League of Nations, appears to have made no effort to ascertain, not to mention hinder, the arms-vending forces behind the violent protests and ascribe responsibility for the children and other innocents being caught up in the resulting war.

The only alternative open to Assad, as far as we can see, was probably to follow the fate of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya. And leave his nation to the fate that Libya is still experiencing.

In next part, we will deal with entry of ISIS to the scene and how that fundamentally changed the situation on the ground for all the relevant parties. Again, we are  seeing this play out in Bangladesh where Islamists are not slowly replacing the so called revolutionaries.