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This is in continuation of my post about sugar-lobby in western MH - its modus operandi is not visible in full glory now. Some new developments and observations that I have made and I am reporting them in this blogpost. This is a random string of observations, hence they may not appear as coherent as it is in case of other blog-posts by your's truly which are in form of essays and articles. Currently too hard-pressed for writing it in a form of standard essay.
1. Sadashivrao Mandlik from Kolhapur has switched over to Shivsena. Sanjay patil of sangli switched over to BJP. In short, all the candidates that matter who are contesting from these sugar-lobby seats belong to this 96-clan deshastha-maratha elite who are big stake-holders in cooperative-movement. The OBC leader Chhagan Bhujbal has been given a loksabha ticket from nashik (thereby packing him off to delhi in a losing election). MH is cleared for Ajitdada pawar. Pawar Saheb has my respect, in spite of all the differences..If only he had used this infinite cunning for good of dharma. if wishes were horses.
2. Many 96-clan maratha leaders switched over to NDA. Kolhapur may turn saffron (I mean politically.. ideologically it is as saffron as Bajrang dal headquarters, even if ruled by INC/NCP) for the first time around. So will sangli.
3. Bhujbal may deliberately lose from nashik to remain relevant in MH-politics which far more profitable than national politics.
4. As they say in casinos, in the end, the house always wins.. stay in power - the rulers and opposition should belong to this exact circle. Now drill this down to Vidhan sabha, zila-parishad, panchayat samiti, governing bodies of various cooperative banks, gram-panchayats, managing boards of string of industries owned by people belonging to this circle, heck even the boards of primary schools in interior villages of western MH, contractors, transport-companies, everywhere.
5. This election, NDA will win.. but the candidates winning from this region will be from this exact lobby. next time, they will either switch over OR let those ones win, who have better chance of forming govt. who ever is in power, takes care of rest..
6. This lobby was broken by BT in urban MH - that is his greatest legacy. Gopinath Munde shows similar promise and is trying to excel it in rural MH in the heartland of 96-clan elite-sugar cooperative owing marathas (not the mango abdul 96-clanner maratha who is like any other norma bloke, who tills the land, works hard and earns bread). it is a very intricate operation to perform. BJP has to stay in power in delhi for at least 10 years to subvert this deeply entrenched system and convert it. and even if it is converted, it will remain in hands of same ppl.
7. Readers may get impression that I am anti-Maratha. I want to categorically state that this is not the case. Nothing wrong in 96-clan Marathas retaining power. The jati-system appears evil because of lack of opportunities. Give an organic all-round growth and increasing pie makes everyone happy. There is a huge groundswell for Modi in this social-group. They will vote along their traditional voting lines, alright. But Munde and Modi has made serious dents in their perception towards BJP which was considered too "brahminical party". as the MH becomes more and more urbanized. this class will shift towards BJP.
8. MH-brahmins are in no position to move-back into villages. they are too deracinated for that. Time to create new-brahmins out of OBCs and Dalits. OBCs and dalits were the real supporters of Shivaji Maharaj, apart from Brahmins and kayasthas. Munde represents this streak of rising power. In the said region (the western MH - nashik+pune-nagar-satara-sangli-kolhpur-solapur), the 96-clan Maratha lobby will always remain dominant - it is simply the demography that is in their favor.
9. Problem has never been marathas. problem has been the closely knit sugar-lobby which is very similar to MH's own lutyen's cocktail circuit. The recent MSCB Shikhar bank controversy (its an apex bank in MH for all the cooperative banks and financial institutions in MH) is indicator of how the INC-NCP dynamics are at play. The MSCB was going bust, when Ajit Pawar through his hardwork saved this bank (no pun intended, he really worked hard to save this bank which funds and controls all the activities of all the cooperative banks of MH which funds the ventures of everyone associated with Sugar-lobby). IN May 2011, CM Prithvibaba dismissed the governing panel of the bank and replaced it with those members who are loyal to INC and hence queen-bee. This was the major jolt for Sharad Pawar. NCP would have digested INC in MH and emerged single party, if this trend had continued.
10. The bank which was in loss in 2009 (indiscriminate loans sanctioned to ppl associated with sugar lobby to win 2009 elections - both state and center) was on the course of scoring profit in may'2011 when INC struck it down on grounds of suspicious activity. In august'2013, the bank recorded profit, making everyone associated with the cooperative network happy. The credit went to INC for making reforms, when what he actually did was continuing Ajit Pawar's policies through the new INC-loyal governing council.
11. This has caused severe internal strifes within this sugar lobby and many of whom have switched over to NDA. The Madha constituency for example has become a civil-war turf for mohite-patil brothers when Pawar gave ticked to vijay simha mohite-patil, his brother switched over to a party named jansewa samiti.
12. This gives a much coveted opening to NDA in western MH. the NT (nomadic tribes) (dhangar - shepherd/hatkar - caste of the holkars) leader mahadeo jankar (of rashtriya samaj paksha - constituent of NDA) has great chance of winning in Madha. problem is, there is fight even in the upcoming OBC-NT factions for this turf - the two NDA constituents - Mahadeo jankar and Raju Shetty are fighting for Madha seat - pressurizing BJP in the process. Now it depends upon the skill of Gopinath Munde to arrange for a settlement in western MH.
13. In this post transformation time, OBCs and NTs will get larger stake in the pie of western MH-polity.Trick is to keep this section of society associated with Hindutva. A section is associated - yes - represented by Munde. But a large section is untapped. many forces, including Ovaisi's MIM are trying hard to win this section over.