Friday, March 13, 2009

China and its Options - Implications for India

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People's Republic of China (PRC) and its rise have been an interesting story which is unfolding. The sheer pace with which China is expanding, makes one think whether this growth is healthy or is it cancerous. Is China expanding out of opportunity or is it expanding out of desperation.

The model of PRC economic growth is such that it has no option but to grow and expand. If PRC economy stops expanding, it will start collapsing even faster. There sustainability factor is slightly less in PRC economy which India has. The price of existence and expansion has to be paid by salvaging USA out. At all costs. PRC was very well placed until last october. It still is in great position, but the Simhasana has begun trembling. 

Expansion of economy keeps the people quite because being quietly oppressed and earning a decent livelihood is profitable for common man. It is like a pressure-cooker situation. The virulently expanding economy is the safety valve which PRC cannot afford to loose. If this safety valve fails to work, the pressure will build up and the cooker will explode.  PRC has to generate wealth and invest in US at all costs. Because, if dollar falls, the trillions of dollars in Chinese coffers will grow worthless. The people in US are democratic and decadent. They have had their share of prosperity and a robust social-security system of US will ensure that people in US won't die of hunger, this is for sure. China does not have such outlets like Social security system and democracy. There is Hunger-problem in PRC which is enormous. So, as days of recession linger, PRC's need to generate money will increase exponentially. 

Even more alarming is the scenarion which can be seen when we compare the rise of India along with that of China. As these countries rise, their spheres of influence have begun to overlap and conflict of interests have ensued. Here is an account of understanding of China's interests in Asia, Indian subcontinent and rest of the world.

Interests of PRC in India's vicinity   

1. To strengthen its grip in Tibet and Xinjiang 

2. To suppress the separatist movements in these provinces at all costs. 

3. Govt in Nepal favouring PRC, more importantly, not favouring India. 

4. Contain the rise of Japan and stop from Japan and Taiwan cooperating with each other - antagonistic to PRC interests. 

5. Support Pakistan enough to contain India but not to influence Xinjiang (one important possibility for India) 

6. Energy routes from middle east to be secured, both land-based and sea based. Pipeline from Iran-Pakistan-China would be very helpful for China.. 

7. Huge consumer market in middle east hence, one potential importer of Chinese goods. 

8. Vietnam - to ensure that Communist dictatorship remains incumbent in Vietnam. People are pissed but cannot revolt. 

9. Same is the case with Myanmar. 

10. The neighbourhood of China - Myanmar, Vietnam, Taiwan and Japan are opportunities for India, if utilized correctly. If democracy is facilitated in these two countries people will favour India. Vietnam can be a long shot, but Myanmar is an urgent necessity. 

11. The major concern of PRC is Taiwan and Japan. India comes third. PRC's attention is more fixed towards first two..  

12. Before going for Tibet, Myanmar should be India's numero-uno priority. Secondly Nepal. Thirdly, Baloochistan (this is tricky). Fourthly, friendship with Iran, Vietnam. Tibet will liberate itself on its own, if Myanmar, Nepal and Baloochistan become pro-Indian. 

13. A big chunk of economy of PRC is based upon value addition and cheap labour. The market of ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations) depends upon PRC, irrespective its repressive policies for cheap labour. Many products of ASEAN are imported in PRC, added the value and exported to the West since labour is comparatively quite expensive in ASEAN. If India is able to convince ASEAN to prefer India over China, they will be more than happy. The Indian system is transparent than that of China and intentions nobler than China. If we could persuade ASEAN to deal with India and that too in Indian rupee, nothing like it...

Rest of the world

Given the meltdown in west, this safety valve of PRC is most prone for mal-function. If India can snatch one or two big markets from PRC, it will be helpful to us. USA has the backing of Europe for cultural reasons. India and China do not. They have to be self-motivated, when it comes to ideology and civilization. So, when looking at the global prospects for PRC to continue expanding, we have to look at potential markets. 

IMO, there few such areas which can be the hotspots for investment and hence chance for aggressive growth. 

1. First is Sub-Saharan Africa. Not all Africa is poor. Some nations like South-Africa, Kenya, Sudan can be promising. I guess, PRC has marked the presence in Sudan. 

2. Second Region is South America. I do not know how much is Brazil's clout in South American continent, but lots of commies there, which can be beneficial for PRC to facilitate as growth sectors. Traditionally, it is US back-door. But, US is cash-strapped for investment. So USA might allow PRC's investment in Central and South Asian countries. Chinese anyways like dealing with commies, dictators and Military Junta, which are dozen a dime in South America. 

3. Third Region is Eastern Europe. But, we have Russia sitting over there. Even if  Russia is cash-strapped. But, I don't know how Russia will deal with the massive PRC investments in eastern europe.Once again, it has to be done with Unkil's blessings. 

4. Fourth is Iran. USA cannot do anything here. But PRC is friend of Islamic countries, especially Sunni ones. Iran being a Shia muslim country, it will be tricky job. Practically, entire Islamic world can potentially be China's growth sector. China gels nicely with nations where democracy is weak which is the scenarion is most of the Islamic nations.

5. Fifth region is Oceania. However, Pacific is the region where two biggest pains in PRC's ass dwell - Taiwan and Japan.  

6. Sixth is India. The areas of strategic and economic interest of both China and USA is India... 

USA and PRC desperately want India to develop and empower her domestic market and abide to rules of WTO faithfully and buy their goods. They will control the demons created by them (Pakistani Army, Taliban and ISI) so that India spends more on development and defence. And India is doing that. But, it is frustratingly slow and also, India's efforts for total indegenisaton and hunger for Transfer of Technology is what is pinching them.  

Within 15 years, If current growth rate continues, India will be powerful enough to assert her dominance over Indian Ocean and Indian subcontinent. That will be the time when the need of oil will start becoming dire and India is geopolitically well placed to extract the benefit. It is not long before India will remove this thorn in her leg, called Pakistan and start running. 

Hence, they don't want India to become too powerful and start projecting her power beyond her boundaries.  In other words, PRC and Unkil are looking for a decent girl who will become an ideal house-wife. Kaaryeshu Daasi, Karaneshu Mantri, Bhojyeshu Maata, Roopeshu Lakshmi, Shayaneshu Rambha, Kshamayeshu Dharitri, Satkarma Naari, Kuladharma Patni as described in Neetishaastram !!

Middle East is firmly under USA's grip and they won't tolerate anybody else's presence, especially of the one who is perceived as friend of Islamic nations due to Israel. 

The love which blossomed between Manmohan Singh (MMS) and Bush was strictly business. The asset which dubya liked in Indya was her ecOnOmy and market. If India can work out her internal problems and develop the rural component, she will be able to project her Mohini Roop (economy and market) and Durga Roop (military) at will. 

Mohini Roop of Bharati can deal with jolted asuras who were running for Amrita-Kumbha and are now distressed. It is this Mohini Roop that can potentially contribute significant;y in pulling the world out of recession. Beauty is, in strange manner, extremely powerful. Even Durga is described as so incredulously beautiful that Shumbha-Nishumbha fell in love with her. A beautiful intelligent woman with stable mind can achieve lot more than man. Her soft power is extremely potent. Just that, under UPA govt led by MMS, this Mohini became a dumb-blonde.

For people who listen to reason (PRC, USA et al), Mohini can persuade them to fall in line.  For dick-heads like Shumbha-Nishumbha, Chanda-Munda and Mahishasura (Pakistani Army, ISI, Taliban et al), Durga-Roop is more than enough. 

India can snatch at least one really huge market away from Chinese, that is Indian domestic market. Of course, its not that easy and there are WTO considerations and India cannot do like this because India will suffer too.. But, it can at least be used as leverage, which India is not doing. 

What will happen if India declares that it will not import anything from a nation which helps Pakistan? Guess, who will suffer the most !!! 

Indianization of Democracy - A Dire Necessity

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I am not having very good feeling ever since Govt decided to go ahead with IPL along with General elections.. Elections in India should not be in April-May when temperatures soar high.. It is very unpleasant time to be in India in summer afternoon.. And due to recent attacks on Sri-lankan cricket team, IPL will unnecessarily become a prestige issue.. this will put tremendous pressure on security agencies, which are already being stretched to their limits...

The best time for elections in India is when the Indic festivals of harvest are concentrated.. Or in August when crops are growing in fields and there nothing much work needed to be done except for daily maintenance of the fields.. in January-February.. or in November.. Around Diwali... the mood of country is happy overall due to festivities and the polling will be healthy.. There should not be any elections after Holi and before Monsoons, simply because there are not any festivals in that time.. In other words, when average climate of India is at its best and there are not many agricultural activities going on..

The festivals are concentrated in such periods of the year.. People have free time to think.. Since the climate is good, the atmosphere pleasent, people can vote without any bias, with clear conscience..

Election needs to be transformed into a religious OR social festival in India. It will not only preserve the sanctimony of the idea, but also make people more participative in a good way.. If it is a festival, people won't dare to cheat, bribe etc... and They will vote because voting will not be mere duty of each citizen, but it will the "Dharma" of each citizen to vote.. and Dharmo Rakshati Rakshitah: - Dharma protects the protector....

It is so easy to understand the soul of India, if you only allow yourself to identify with her roots. All the religious, philosophical schools of India are designed to peacefully co-exist with each other in India. In case of hard times, various social groups which adhere to the paths, religions, philosophies of Indian origin have some feature which allows them to arrive at a point of mutual compromise and the peaceful coexistence continues. 

The festivals of India are more of a social events than religious ones.. Given the vast diversity of social, religous, philosophical, ideological and economic groups which originated in India, such festivals give them the much needed opportunity to come together, interact with each other and share some time together doing some activity. This builds up a social solidarity amongst the people. To make such event mandatory, some religious connotations are associated with such events.. Thus, it becomes a festival and is faithfully followed by masses.

Panchayat Raj has been existent in India for thousands of years. The village Panch (5 leaders) were selected by mutual consensus of villagers. Thus democracy has been practiced in India at this grass-root level for thousands of years.. Such selections happen around some or the other festival, thus giving people an exuse to come together and think about their village.. 

Indic religions are designed and evolved in India. They reflect Indian life-style and Indian Ethos.. They do it because they have evolved here and are time-tested and there is hardly anything religious about them. Its mostly social occasion, just like choosing the leader is a social occasion. It is high time India regains her roots... Only that can save her, nothing else..

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Seven Stages of Love

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According to Arabic literature, there are seven stages of love..

1. हब - Hub - Attraction
2. उन्स - Uns - Infatuation
3. इश्क़ - Ishq - Love
4. अक़ीदत - Aqeedat - Reverence
5. इबादत - Ibaadat - Worship
6. जूनून - Junoon - Obsession
7. मौत - Maut - Death

This seven fold philosophy of love is beautifully depicted in this song from the movie Dil Se, which is one of my favorite movies... The song and film is extremely figurative and artistic and the symbolism is not easily understood in first viewing. However this symbolism and theme of seven steps, is artistically depicted in the movie...

This song is played at all the major turning points of the film where the characters cross each of these 7 check points leading ultimately to their death.. Inexorably drawn towards each other, the crescendo of love goes on increasing unchecked....

तू ही तू.... तू ही तू सतरंगी रे...
तू ही तू... तू ही तू मनरंगी रे..

दिल का साया हमसाया सतरंगी रे... मनरंगी रे...
कोई नूर है तू, क्यूँ दूर है तू....
जब पास है तू, अहसास है तू....
कोई ख़्वाब हैं या परछाई है, सतरंगी रे ???.... सतरंगी रे.....
इस बार बता मुजोर हवा ठहरेगी कहाँ ???

This is the first stage of Hub... The eyes meet, the spark is initiated... the journey begins...

इश्क़ पर जोर नहीं, हैं ये वो आतिश ग़ालिब....जो लगाए न लगे और बुझाए न बने.....

One of the most beautiful and insightful lines of Mirza Ghalib... He compares love with of an uncontrolled fire... Difficult to ignite, and once started, impossible to extinguish...

आँखों ने कुछ ऐसे छुआ.... हल्का हल्का उन्स हुआ...
हल्का हल्का उन्स हुआ, दिल को महसूस हुआ...

Second stage of infatuation achieved...

तू ही तू.... तू ही तू, जीने की सारी खुशबू
तू ही तू... तू ही तू, आरजू आरजू...
तेरी जिस्म की आंच को छूते ही, मेरे सांस सुलगने लगते हैं..
मुझे इश्क़ दिलासे देता हैं, मेरे दर्द बिलखने लगते हैं.....

Third stage of love.. This is the pinnacle of the feel good involved in the process. The most blissful of all the stages.. If this point is crossed, the bliss starts decreasing. We can't say whether pain starts after this stage or not, but the the ideas of bliss and pain start getting increasingly impersonal... If love crosses this point, there usually is no turning back.. One has to follow the chain of events which leads to death or severe heart-break, poetically worse than Death...

तू ही तू... तू ही तू, जीने की सारी खुशबू...
तू ही तू... तू ही तू, आरजू आरजू
छूती है मुझे सरगोशी से, आँखों में घुली खामोशी से...
मैं फर्श पे सजदे करता हूँ, कुछ होश में कुछ बेहोशी से...

Fourth and Fifth stage is seen in this stanza.. Reverence and Worship... An object one initially was infatuated with and attracted to, becomes the object of reverence which leads to it becoming an object of worship... The object of worship is elevated to a higher pedastal where nothing can be wrong with the object.. There can be no negotiations about the infallibility of the object...

Interesting thing is, until this point, the Dvaita (Duality) of lover and beloved is maintained.. Although the object becomes infallible and utmost important, this is not the point where the identity of person is lost...

All the relations which come until this point are dualist. Devout lovers, Devout Bhaktas (Devotees), Fanatic believers in God, all come until this point of the journey..

The next 2 steps are so insanely dangerous that few dare to tread them...

तेरी राहों में उलझा उलझा हूँ, तेरी बाहों में उलझा उलझा...
सुलझाने दे होश मुझे, तेरी चाहों में उलझा हूँ....
मेरा जीना जूनून, मेरा मरना जूनून...
अब इसके सिवा नहीं कोई सुकून...

The sixth stage of Obsession achieved... Here, slowly, person starts identifying whole-heartedly with the object of his obsession.. He starts loosing his identity and begins the process of becoming one with the object of obsession.. He entangles hopelessly into the identity of object of obsession.. To such an extent that the existence-nonexistence of the object becomes the matter of his own existence-nonexistence...

तू ही तू.. तू ही तू, सतरंगी रे...
तू ही तू... तू ही तू, मनरंगी रे...

इश्क़ पर जोर नहीं हैं ये वो आतिश ग़ालिब... जो लगाए न लगे और बुझाए न बने...

मुझे मौत की गोद में सोने दे.....
तेरी रूह में जिस्म डुबोने दे....

सतरंगी रे.....मनरंगी रे.....

Final stage.... Death.. This can be literal as well as figurative...

The other words which convey the meaning of this stage are फना (Fanaa - Destruction of ego), कैवल्य (Kaivalya - Singularity) and अद्वैत (Advaita - Non-Dualism).

All these four concepts of Death, Destruction (of ego), Singularity and Non-dualism signify the same climax.. The lover destroys his self-identity; his Aatman (Sense of "I")..

If someone contemplates on a woman and travels these stages, he will end up destroying himself, but will not become one with the woman or her identity... If one chooses to contemplate on some idea or something abstract, like Brahman, he will achieve unity... It is a matter of great skepticism whether an accomplished Yogi actually experiences the state of Singularity (Kaivalya) or not... But he claims to be, and there is no way to either prove or disprove it...

Just as it is the case with love... It is strictly a personal experience.... No one can feel it for you... No one can measure it and validate it... It is something which simply exists.. without any requisite explanation OR justification...

As it is said by Ghalib... Love is like an uncontrollable fire.... Difficult to ignite and impossible to quench...

Monday, March 09, 2009

Arthakranti - Revolutionizing Socio-Economic scenario of India...

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A great innovative solution by Mr. Anil Bokil and his team for reforming the economic structure of India and eventually the world. Have a look at the proposed reforms he suggests in these four videos

Arthakranti - Proposed economic system for empowered India - Part 1

Arthakranti - Proposed economic system for empowered India - Part 2

Arthakranti - Proposed economic system for empowered India - Part 3

Arthakranti - Proposed economic system for empowered India - Part 4

Benefits of Arthakranti

Business development opportunities due to simple and transparent taxation

Free from the present tedious tax structure
Benefits of ArthakrantiThe business and industry will switch over their resources towards research and development.

Business or industry can enjoy the liberty to chalk out long-term policies for the growth of the business independently.

Domestic manufacturing industry would get inspired to compete in the international market.
Effective governance and clean political system

Enormous increase in revenue.

Government can take up the long awaited infrastructure development activities.

Government can attempt gigantic projects for welfare of the nation.

Development plans can be effectively executed.

Foreign investment would be encouraged.

Independent share of central, state and local governments.

Will help establish a powerful image of the country on the international platform.

Government would be in a position to effectively handle internationally dependent trades
Safe and peaceful life for all

Strikes at the very root of the parallel economy.

Government can effectively discourage anti-social businesses like Liquor, Gutkha, Alcohol, and Lottery etc.

The system would be more transparent and dynamic leading to a morally boosted social psychology.

Price level throughout the market shall be virtually equal.

Boost the purchasing power of the nation.

With higher denomination currency notes no more in operation, induction of high valued fake currency notes by anti-national elements can be effectively encountered
More employment opportunities

Creative brains can find attractive opportunities within the country
Effective banking system

Result in reduction of the risk factor due to floating money transactions.

Alternative & very effective earning source for banks