Friday, March 13, 2009

China and its Options - Implications for India

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People's Republic of China (PRC) and its rise have been an interesting story which is unfolding. The sheer pace with which China is expanding, makes one think whether this growth is healthy or is it cancerous. Is China expanding out of opportunity or is it expanding out of desperation.

The model of PRC economic growth is such that it has no option but to grow and expand. If PRC economy stops expanding, it will start collapsing even faster. There sustainability factor is slightly less in PRC economy which India has. The price of existence and expansion has to be paid by salvaging USA out. At all costs. PRC was very well placed until last october. It still is in great position, but the Simhasana has begun trembling. 

Expansion of economy keeps the people quite because being quietly oppressed and earning a decent livelihood is profitable for common man. It is like a pressure-cooker situation. The virulently expanding economy is the safety valve which PRC cannot afford to loose. If this safety valve fails to work, the pressure will build up and the cooker will explode.  PRC has to generate wealth and invest in US at all costs. Because, if dollar falls, the trillions of dollars in Chinese coffers will grow worthless. The people in US are democratic and decadent. They have had their share of prosperity and a robust social-security system of US will ensure that people in US won't die of hunger, this is for sure. China does not have such outlets like Social security system and democracy. There is Hunger-problem in PRC which is enormous. So, as days of recession linger, PRC's need to generate money will increase exponentially. 

Even more alarming is the scenarion which can be seen when we compare the rise of India along with that of China. As these countries rise, their spheres of influence have begun to overlap and conflict of interests have ensued. Here is an account of understanding of China's interests in Asia, Indian subcontinent and rest of the world.

Interests of PRC in India's vicinity   

1. To strengthen its grip in Tibet and Xinjiang 

2. To suppress the separatist movements in these provinces at all costs. 

3. Govt in Nepal favouring PRC, more importantly, not favouring India. 

4. Contain the rise of Japan and stop from Japan and Taiwan cooperating with each other - antagonistic to PRC interests. 

5. Support Pakistan enough to contain India but not to influence Xinjiang (one important possibility for India) 

6. Energy routes from middle east to be secured, both land-based and sea based. Pipeline from Iran-Pakistan-China would be very helpful for China.. 

7. Huge consumer market in middle east hence, one potential importer of Chinese goods. 

8. Vietnam - to ensure that Communist dictatorship remains incumbent in Vietnam. People are pissed but cannot revolt. 

9. Same is the case with Myanmar. 

10. The neighbourhood of China - Myanmar, Vietnam, Taiwan and Japan are opportunities for India, if utilized correctly. If democracy is facilitated in these two countries people will favour India. Vietnam can be a long shot, but Myanmar is an urgent necessity. 

11. The major concern of PRC is Taiwan and Japan. India comes third. PRC's attention is more fixed towards first two..  

12. Before going for Tibet, Myanmar should be India's numero-uno priority. Secondly Nepal. Thirdly, Baloochistan (this is tricky). Fourthly, friendship with Iran, Vietnam. Tibet will liberate itself on its own, if Myanmar, Nepal and Baloochistan become pro-Indian. 

13. A big chunk of economy of PRC is based upon value addition and cheap labour. The market of ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations) depends upon PRC, irrespective its repressive policies for cheap labour. Many products of ASEAN are imported in PRC, added the value and exported to the West since labour is comparatively quite expensive in ASEAN. If India is able to convince ASEAN to prefer India over China, they will be more than happy. The Indian system is transparent than that of China and intentions nobler than China. If we could persuade ASEAN to deal with India and that too in Indian rupee, nothing like it...

Rest of the world

Given the meltdown in west, this safety valve of PRC is most prone for mal-function. If India can snatch one or two big markets from PRC, it will be helpful to us. USA has the backing of Europe for cultural reasons. India and China do not. They have to be self-motivated, when it comes to ideology and civilization. So, when looking at the global prospects for PRC to continue expanding, we have to look at potential markets. 

IMO, there few such areas which can be the hotspots for investment and hence chance for aggressive growth. 

1. First is Sub-Saharan Africa. Not all Africa is poor. Some nations like South-Africa, Kenya, Sudan can be promising. I guess, PRC has marked the presence in Sudan. 

2. Second Region is South America. I do not know how much is Brazil's clout in South American continent, but lots of commies there, which can be beneficial for PRC to facilitate as growth sectors. Traditionally, it is US back-door. But, US is cash-strapped for investment. So USA might allow PRC's investment in Central and South Asian countries. Chinese anyways like dealing with commies, dictators and Military Junta, which are dozen a dime in South America. 

3. Third Region is Eastern Europe. But, we have Russia sitting over there. Even if  Russia is cash-strapped. But, I don't know how Russia will deal with the massive PRC investments in eastern europe.Once again, it has to be done with Unkil's blessings. 

4. Fourth is Iran. USA cannot do anything here. But PRC is friend of Islamic countries, especially Sunni ones. Iran being a Shia muslim country, it will be tricky job. Practically, entire Islamic world can potentially be China's growth sector. China gels nicely with nations where democracy is weak which is the scenarion is most of the Islamic nations.

5. Fifth region is Oceania. However, Pacific is the region where two biggest pains in PRC's ass dwell - Taiwan and Japan.  

6. Sixth is India. The areas of strategic and economic interest of both China and USA is India... 

USA and PRC desperately want India to develop and empower her domestic market and abide to rules of WTO faithfully and buy their goods. They will control the demons created by them (Pakistani Army, Taliban and ISI) so that India spends more on development and defence. And India is doing that. But, it is frustratingly slow and also, India's efforts for total indegenisaton and hunger for Transfer of Technology is what is pinching them.  

Within 15 years, If current growth rate continues, India will be powerful enough to assert her dominance over Indian Ocean and Indian subcontinent. That will be the time when the need of oil will start becoming dire and India is geopolitically well placed to extract the benefit. It is not long before India will remove this thorn in her leg, called Pakistan and start running. 

Hence, they don't want India to become too powerful and start projecting her power beyond her boundaries.  In other words, PRC and Unkil are looking for a decent girl who will become an ideal house-wife. Kaaryeshu Daasi, Karaneshu Mantri, Bhojyeshu Maata, Roopeshu Lakshmi, Shayaneshu Rambha, Kshamayeshu Dharitri, Satkarma Naari, Kuladharma Patni as described in Neetishaastram !!

Middle East is firmly under USA's grip and they won't tolerate anybody else's presence, especially of the one who is perceived as friend of Islamic nations due to Israel. 

The love which blossomed between Manmohan Singh (MMS) and Bush was strictly business. The asset which dubya liked in Indya was her ecOnOmy and market. If India can work out her internal problems and develop the rural component, she will be able to project her Mohini Roop (economy and market) and Durga Roop (military) at will. 

Mohini Roop of Bharati can deal with jolted asuras who were running for Amrita-Kumbha and are now distressed. It is this Mohini Roop that can potentially contribute significant;y in pulling the world out of recession. Beauty is, in strange manner, extremely powerful. Even Durga is described as so incredulously beautiful that Shumbha-Nishumbha fell in love with her. A beautiful intelligent woman with stable mind can achieve lot more than man. Her soft power is extremely potent. Just that, under UPA govt led by MMS, this Mohini became a dumb-blonde.

For people who listen to reason (PRC, USA et al), Mohini can persuade them to fall in line.  For dick-heads like Shumbha-Nishumbha, Chanda-Munda and Mahishasura (Pakistani Army, ISI, Taliban et al), Durga-Roop is more than enough. 

India can snatch at least one really huge market away from Chinese, that is Indian domestic market. Of course, its not that easy and there are WTO considerations and India cannot do like this because India will suffer too.. But, it can at least be used as leverage, which India is not doing. 

What will happen if India declares that it will not import anything from a nation which helps Pakistan? Guess, who will suffer the most !!! 

1 comment:

Ace said...