Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Thoughts on FDI, Falling Rupee and associated Geopolitics

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FDI issue coupled with falling rupee, it is indeed an interesting phenomenon. The Euro zone appears to have played well, and UK is caught out in its bluff. But more importantly : several disturbing and historically era-changing pointers coming together. They are as follows.

A Chinese political meltdown within the party - with several internal feuds now taking on wider dimensions. City based nearly autonomous politics appears to be developing. Somewhat like the closing stages of USSR - regional-city party bosses transitioning to satrap status. The economic changes through urbanization-industrialization appears to be accelerating the process. The implications of reference 1 will be explained in greater detail towards end of this email. [1]

The Euro will tighten its belt. But it will tide over. More power to Germany and secondly to France. But UK may now take steps to try and see how to thwart this process. It is worthwhile to explore the model that UK serves now as a front for a global financical network [nearly transnational] - and such interests, through its widespread legacy of surviving connections and subnetworks from the imperialist phase throughout the world. In a crisis they are likely to desperately use any compromises to keep their high flying capital safe and grow - including religions such as islamism, limited wars, and other forms of national level subversion.  [2]

Ref 2 is extremely important speech given by polish president which will be remembered in annals of history where he literally called the bluff of UK. it also shows how comfortable poland is for first time in thousand years to be between russia and germany. There is a change in Poland how it views Germany and Russia. With Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Ukraine to the East of Poland, Polish fears of Russia have substantially winded down. Similarly after being incorporated within the EU, Polish fears of Germany have also calmed. Today thousands of Polish people are living and working in Germany and they feel at ease. 

This is not to say that the old rhetoric of World War 2 is fully gone. That probably never goes. Just see UK and France! Germany and Russia are now connected through a Gas Pipeline going under the Baltic Sea and are not dependent on other pipelines through Ukraine, etc. For the rest of traffic, transit, logistics, there is no problem in Europe. Nobody is going to stop people from traveling and goods from being transported. There are many land routes, and if they are for some reason blocked, there is always the sea route. Anglo-Americans have lost the influence they had a decade ago in Eastern Europe. Germany has been able to consolidate the region within the EU. 

Furthermore, Polish are also Catholics and not Eastern Orthodox! That has got a large effect on the overall perspective. Juxtapose the ban on Bhagvat Geeta in Russia happened yesterday in response to a PIL filed in russian high court backed by Eastern Orthodox Church of Russia (showing that ISKCON and hinduism is overall growing rather rapidly in Russia). One data pointer to keep in mind to guess about how India-Russia relations might turn up in coming decade.

Meanwhile apparently UK is not liking it that germany is again regaining the prominent position. here is the article from a pro UK paper whining about rise of german empire in melodramatic language. [3]

The Eurozone war has upended one millenia of European history by making Germany the sole European financial power. Bismarck and Hitler would be proud of Angela Merkel. the Eurozone debt crisis is a economic war between Anglo-Saxons and the Continentials (Germany and France). Hence UK has to be aloof. They were constant blockers of European integration for it negates their silly Balance of Power strategy played since the early 1700s War of Spanish Succession. BOP works when the opponents are divided. Once they unite they can show the door to the game players.

This particular video in Ref 4 is from BBC classic of 1970s Yes Minister was particularly popular on youtube. BBC has taken down this video from youtube and metacafe based on copyright issues. funny part is it was uploaded by BBC itself. shows how clueless has UK and the anglosaxon lobby has become. I found it on this obscure website by some other host. this video shows what I am speaking of in previous paragraph. [4]

So continental Europe has called UK's bluff. Scotland is talking of independence and joining Scandinavia union. [5]  

What is happening in anglo-saxon lobby of UK and USA?

well for starters, the hot topic middle-east:  

However this is just one part of it. Recent developments which I remember happened in past year vis-a-vis US and China are as following..

  • Up to six months back, US officials shuttled to China to urge it to appreciate Yuan.
  • China thought it has become a middle kingdom again and planned to expand rapidly with its reserves, even into Europe. It even talked some warmongering.
  • Unable to persuade China, rest of the world decided to devalue their currencies 20-30% against dollar, thus making Chinese exports costlier. (In Indian case there are no significant FII outflows, yet it gone from Rs. 44 to Rs. 54 in a short span of 4-5 months). Its better for the rest of the world to devalue themselves WRT to dollar, if China refuses to appreciate its Yuan.
  • To stop European conquest by PRC (marked by heir aggressive investment in Greek debt), Euro appreciated 20-30% so that investing in Euro is not that attractive (Yuan->Dollar->Euro).

Few Facts which materialized in recent history to Ponder are that 

  • Gold now ~$1580/Oz. Used to be ~$1800 a few months ago . 
  • Indian rupee devalued ~17% this year
  • Euro/$ peg still there
  • Euro market and US market still in doldrums
  • PRC cant consume what it makes

What this might lead to in coming few months? 

Please keep in mind the ref 1 about internal problems which china is facing in past few months. We do not get many data points about china's internal environment. Things may not be as rosy as they try to portray. 

Following is the game which anglo-saxon lobby of US-England might play in collusion of EU and docile Manmohan Singh Govt at helm of India. Given the military unpreparedness of India, she has no other option for next 15 years anyways. As mentioned other day, even if BJP comes to power, FDI in retail will not stop from happening. The percentage of good which the retail chains will acquire from India will be the key bone of contention. UPA is too liberal here, I wish and hope if NDA comes to power, they are more conservative and put the bar above 30% to 35%.

  • Continued unrest in China, due to loss of jobs and economic recession.
  • Some sort of protectionism in US and Europe through import quotas.
  • Partial collapse of WTO, thus making free trade unjust for the prospects of developing countries. This might already be in pipeline now as this particular reference hints at. If true, it is indeed alarming and the silence of Indian media on this issue is deafening. Are they incompetent or are they complicit? . [6]
  • Rupee range bound at 53-57, so that Indian IT companies will give flat 30% discount to US.
  • Once Rupee stabilizes around 53-57 range expect huge inflows FDI inflows in India in infrastructure and manufacturing, and there is as geopolitical angle to it (India giving them 20-30% discount at starting by Rupee depreciation).
  • FDI in retail will be cleared with backhand understanding that Western countries will move most of low manufacturing jobs from China to India. (the recent policy behavior of India in South African climate summit stalling the treaty which infringes upon the developing countries for pollution caused by west in past is also indicator. Do they really want the low cost manufacturing jobs to move from China to India? Will it convert India into another China with environmental problems? The tendency of US establishment find quick fix for the problems without looking for long term implications gives me shudders in spine)
  • Complete encirclement of China with careful balance of power, so that India or Japan cannot become military powers. This can be achieved by killing the R&D projects of ISRO and DRDO while forcing India to buy American war-toys. Japan is screwed for a decade anyways due to tsunami and Fukushima disaster.
  • Pakistan will be defanged and will be used as a low punching bag.
  • Continued stalemate in Middle East, thus keeping Turkey, GCC and Iran at bay.