Monday, November 30, 2009

Nuclear Terrorism - Options left for Pakistani Army and Taliban - Part 1

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Author - Dr. Shivshankar Sastry

Both the Pakistan army and their jihadi allies are rational players of the great game just like India, USA and China. They are looking for their own survival and the survival of their power and ideology. Hence They are not planning on suicide anytime soon. Furthermore,let us use Occam's razor and stop differentiating between Pakistan army and Jihadi groups. At one central level, the Islamist Pakistan army and the Jihadi groups are one and the same and their long term aims are the same. I am assuming that they have joint control over nuclear weapons.

Whatever their long term aims may be, suicide and self destruction are not on the agenda. They are willing to take losses of their cadres as long as their overall aims are achieved in the long term. They are rational enough to realise that they require some base,some land and some infrastruture to survive and have nuclear weapons. Nukes do require some facilities and personnel for maintenance and use, even if manufacture is not needed.

When it comes o the nitty gritty of survival, for the Pak Army/jihadi combine - a direct fight with the US is suicide. Especially if they nuke US forces. If the US decides to use its force on them - especially nuclear forces - they will be eliminated even if the US expends 2% of its available nuclear strength on them. So the only route to victory in the long term is to ensure that they do not provoke the US. Better still would be to get the US to keep funding them. So you can safely rule out a nuclear attack on the US or on US entities.

Now it is fashionable to state that India is a soft target. "Everyone on here knows all the truth and India is set to get nuked by a jihadi and our fizzles won't work" - this is a statement that will get no arguments because it is a comfortable bottom line for all to follow. That is why I have been asking that we step out of the boxes we have built for ourselves. It is my contention that a jihadi nuke on India is as risky as one on a US entity. India will hardly get cowed by a couple of jihadi nukes and even if our missiles are fijjiles and our nukes are 15 kt fission only - air dropped nukes and conventional forces will damage the future of the Paki Army-jihadi nexus enough to upset their longterm survival plans. So a jihadi nuke on India, is risky for Pakistan. Kasab may be claimed by lunatics in Pakistan (Like Jahil Hamid) as Hindutva agent but a nuke on India will not be looked at that way.

The question that arises is,if Paki-jihadi nukes are no good against India or the US, what use are they? They are perfect for blackmail. And they are perfect for long term protection of Paki-jihadi nukes. The blackmail is the suggestion that Paki nukes may go "out of control" if the Pakistani army is pushed too hard. So both India and the US are forced to bend to this blackmail and not push the Paki army too hard, imagining, in their naivete, that the Pakistani army is keeping control of all its nukes.

In fact rationality demands that the nukes should be spread out and distributed to all islamist factions so that is the Paki army is finally cowed down by the US and or India, the Islamist forces will still have nukes to blackmail the world.


chandrabhan said...

Terrorist state of Pukistan army is Jee-hardi in uniform only. There is no differentiation for India as such. I agree though that the yahoos will not use nuke on US but there is a every chance of them using against India. While I say that, I am not afraid of the consequences in anyway. We have enough People and land to survive it.

TSPA's sole aim is survival by any means and to do that they continuously need to invent a justification for their existence. The only way to call the bluff is let the Yahoos have the bums. This will result in two things favourable to India..

1. As of now all there 'bums' are pointed towards India, In the changed scenario, few will change direction towards Russia, Israel and possibly China. Win- win for us

2. The game will be up on the duplicity of TSPA. The lid on the 'moderate' professional army will be off.

other things

a. Pakjabi army will have to eventually fight for survival of pakjab fearing a backlash. The 'junglees' will create a state and the disintegration of Pak is satan will start. Pakjab will be the buffer state for us and the entities , baluchistan , Pashtoonkhwa & Pak is satan ( Pakjab + Sindh) will continue to fight each other till the time either the 'Jungless' or the Pak jabis tire out. 5 years max. In case the 'Junglees' win, it will out in open and the Resident indian Pakistanis 'RIP' and the candle wallahs will loose job in desh and shut up. There will no longer be a cry of "brothers, Suffering terrorism" in short no equal equal, This again will be a gain. Indians will see Pukistanis as what they are meant to be seen as.

Moreover with the blowing up of schools, lashing women in public will throw questions for the world. pakistan= Citadel of Islam = pious muslims. the question can be, "if this is islam then world must figure it out themselves!" We must encourage the pukis to usurp the throne of Ummah from Saudis.

Islamic republic of Pakistan must become the fulcrum of the new Ummah and Sauds are corrupt and devoid of religion. This will help suck in the 'mother' of this wahabbi radicalism and they must feel the heat of pious ones. This can set Sauds and pukis against each other.

b. America will have no option but to nuke them eventually with a nod from Empellol hu and successors.

I don't think we should worry about the yahoo take over. we should not stop it and MMS is not helping matters by saying , " Jee hardis shd not get nukes", rather we should set the sauds and TSP + Yahoos on collission course. Yahoos must teach true islam to the corrupt Sauds.

Chiron said...

Chandrabhan ji,

Although USA guaranties that Paki-nukes are safe and won't fall in "Wrong Hands", I am fairly sceptical about the control they have on the loose nukes. They might have tight control over the Nuclear infra-structure of Pakistan, but USA cannot guaranty that the loose-nikes have not already been dispersed by Paki army during the time of Zia and Mirza Aslam Beg.

The aim of establishing a loose Islamic confederacy seems to be one of the long-term aims of the muslim elite in subcontinent. (prima facie, this was the elite which supported the partition and formation of Pakistan as the first step towards establishing a bigger Caliphate).

Usage of nukes by this elite which controls both Paki army and jihadis, proves to be anathema to their bigger plans. The delivary capability of Paki army is severely questioned, so most probably the nuke attack might by Jihadi Delivered Atomic Munition (JDAM).

This really does not serve the purpose of nuke attack. The operationalization of ballistic missile defense shield by India further complicates the matters for Paki army regarding ballistic missile attack. It has to be JDAM.

JDAM cannot bring about a crippling attack on India. The response will surely be disproportionate and severe, not only from India but also from global community.

Furthermore, PRC will also have to face the music because almost everybody in the world now knows that Pakis have Chinese weapons and it was China's mistake to proliferate in first place. Whatever influence China wields on TSP, that influence won't allow TSP to give go ahead to yahoos to conduct a JDAM.

MMS is either playing a Chankian game OR perhaps he is too weak to matter what he says (since everybody knows, who holds the strings in India; it is Rajmata and Yuvaraj).

"Stable Pakistan is in India's interest" is the rhetoric double-speak of India which is to be taken in opposite meaning.

Pakistan exists for destruction of India, how can a stable and strong Pakistan be in India's interest?

However, it seems that until India becomes strong enough to dictate terms in the region unquestionably, this rhetoric will continue. Until then Unstable Pakistan on brink of failure is in India's favour (for next 10 years, may be).

After USA exits OR decides to exit Af-pak, the interesting events will begin to unfold.

If that exit is premature (within the term of Obama) then India should display the rogue side and test few thermonuclear devices. Meanwhile India should operationalize Submarine launched MIRved Agni-5 at all costs. Thermonuclear tests will be of no use without efficient and proven delivery system.

The emphasis on delivery system is paramount because in case of JDAM attack on India, the Indian response won't be limited to Pakistan alone; China will also have to face the brunt of Indian Wrath and pay the price for providing designs to Pakis. I am not advocating nuke-strike on PRC, but China has to be made to pay the price.

Until this operational capability is achieved by India and military modernization is formalized, this rhetoric of Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai and "stable Pakistan in India's interest" will continue.

Chiron said...

It is interesting to observe that the centre for Islam has shifted outside Arabia.

Although Saudi is indispensable (due to presence of Mecca and Medina); seat of caliphate has moved to Persia and Turkey.

In modern times, sadly the seat of "Islamiyat" is Pakistan and hence Indian subcontinent. They has been trying to deliver finishing blow to Indic civilization since times of Aurangzeb, but somehow, it is repeatedly frustrated by failure. Who else in Ummah is as important as TSP, today? There are options to Saudi and its oil. But there is no option for TSP.

Saudi is merely playing the role of financing the Paki elite. They can finance as long as they have oil money. It is interesting to note that Saudis, unlike UAE and other arab sates, have not invested in development of post-oil world order.

The radicalization of Pakjabi people is matter of concern for India. Unlike Pathans, Punjab is integral part of "Bhaarat". Everything to the east of Sindhu river must be salvaged and it is sad to see the fall of Kekay-region at the hands of Jihadi ideology.

They (Pakjabis and Sindhis) need to be punished for this, but they should not be abandoned by India. They should be punished repeatedly and harshly until they start loving us back again.

And most importantly, they should see India as the sole punisher. They should see that India is screwing them and there is nothing they can do to stop India from doing that. Furthermore they should understand why is India screwing them and what does India expect in return.

Unless this is imprimmed upon the minds of Paki Abduls thoroughly, the salvage of Pakjab is difficult.

chandrabhan said...

I for all reasons suspect that pakistan have been rendered nuke nude by Amir khan. Having said that there may be some nukes left with them , just enough for them to keep India on the toes.

The possibility of some nukes passing in the hands of yahoos is doubtful as yet but the possibility remains. I too believe that It is not in our interest to pick a fight for another 10 years or so with either of the two Whore ( Pukistan) and the client (PRC). That's why some 6 months back I had proposed at a forum( we both are members) that we should engage with Amir khan but with clarity in our head..

1. Amir khan stay longer in our back yard is sucking their energy and rendering the anglo saxon block useless bit right now it is in our favour. we get time to grow.

2. We have to be ready to put boots on ground in Afghanistan ( to protect our investments) when we are asked by the anglo saxons but bargain hard - why not a land corridor through northern areas, 100 km wide. Independent command and staying in the north of afghanistan

3. Our nuclear policy states that the states aiding and abetting nuclear war on India will be punished - that is aimed at China. Yes I agree , we must put MIRV agni 5 like yesterday. China can not risk a nuclear war. PRC will be done away - Status quo will be gone and it will break in riots. Good for us.

4. We must float few ballons and set another client - Saudis and Whore on collision course. The control of Mecca should be wrested from sauds. TSP mards can not be denied this ( being the pious one). Why not the grand mufti / custodian of holy mosques be on a rotation basis?

5. Out of the 3& 1/2 clients one is already on collision course - US, China is on the way with Xin xiang and mother of Wahab must be embroilled somehow. Who can be more pious than Pakis. They must take true islam to the heart of Arabia.

Coming back to Pukistan. I agree that it shd be kept alive on the brink of collapse for 10 years but sometimes i wonder why don't we let a jee hardi take over happen. The TSPA will have to just shred the dress and the world will see the rue colours and some how we are not utilising our own muslim population .

Some mard-e- momin in Pka shd start questioning the genocide of Uighurs. We will have to fight a war and the anglo saxon must tire out before than leave the backyard for Indics. Om baba will run away in 2 years and we are yet to buy even the basic artillery. MMS is a joke at best

Chiron said...

Chandrabhan ji,

You wrote - "We have to be ready to put boots on ground in Afghanistan (to protect our investments) when we are asked by the anglo saxons but bargain hard - why not a land corridor through northern areas, 100 km wide. Independent command and staying in the north of afghanistan"

This is very important point. Although I have also vouched for reconquest of Gilgit and Northern Areas, this was very important insight of yours (both on foruma and here) that it can be done in exchange of Indian boots on Af-Pak.

This is directly in contradiction with Chinese interests. Their entire investment in Gwadar is wasted if this happens. Given the tango of Ombaba with Hu, I doubt whether this bargain will be offered.

Instead, PRC may offer to put Chinese boots on Afghan territory to stabilize the region. Anyways Obama has indirectly hinted as informal "G-2" agreement and distribution.

In one of my previous article I have written this - if NATO stays in Pak-Afghan region for 12-15 years more (which most probably they will), they will end up exhausting and squandering most of their wealth and lots of their men in the region.

The direct beneficiaries of this scenario will be China and Islamic world and in weird way, India. I consider this situation similar to one in deccan in late 1600's when 27 year long Deccan conquest of Aurangjeb ended up weakening Mughal empire and strengthening Marathas. Now, who will play the role similar to the one which Marathas played in 1700's is matter of great interest.


Now, India, Islamic caliphate and PRC has opportunity to rise over the ruins of the west. Reality tells us that PRC and Islamic confederacy have higher chances of rising, than India in case US fails.

The point which you suggested of NATO asking India to deploy troops in Afghanistan won't happen until India proves that it can do it anyways.

for that, india needs a land-access to Afghanistan via Northern areas.

My point is, in case NATO decides to quit, it will call the strongest in the region to take its place, just like Mughals asked marathas (marathas would have done it anyways, Mughals simply declared victory after downhill skiing). Fortunately then the strongest were Marathas.

Unfortunately now, the strongest in the region are Chinese (with dense network of Asian-Highway project, they are well placed to mobilize troops in Afghanistan via Xinjiang and Wakhan corridor. US is already thinking of relinquishing Asia to Chinese.

Why OR for what will anglo-saxons ask India to do the job, unless it is clear that India is in position of doing that any ways, in spite of NATO's choice.

For that, India needs to win back NA beforehand and develop road network there and establish contact with CAR.

Ace said... for thought.